Latest news with #Capital Economics
The Independent
4 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
Why Russian markets jumped after Trump's tariff threat against Putin
Speaking alongside Nato chief Mark Rutte in the Oval Office on Monday, US President Donald Trump announced 100 per cent tariffs for Russia if a peace deal is not reached within 50 days. But rather than be spooked, the Russian stock market rose by 2.7 per cent. Russia had been expecting tougher sanctions from Trump with local media bracing the country for a fresh confrontation. 'Russia and America are moving towards a new round of confrontation over Ukraine,' a Russian tabloid initially warned on Monday, before the meeting. 'Trump's Monday surprise will not be pleasant for our country.' Instead the 50 day timeline gives Russia time to negotiate and delay the sanctions. The new tariffs act as secondary sanctions targeting countries that buy Russian oil, as Moscow and Washington have almost no trade relationship following Biden's sanctions. 'If President Trump follows through on his threat to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, leading to a sharp drop in Russian energy flows, it would invariably lead to higher global energy prices,' said Kieran Tompkins, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. But Mr Tompkins added: 'The 50-day deadline maintains the possibility that the oil market will avoid any disruption whatsoever and because the tariff rate is lower than the 500 percent contained in Lindsey Graham's Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025.' While Trump may have performed below market expectations, his announcement marked a tougher rhetorical stance towards Putin. 'I'm disappointed in President Putin, because I thought we would have had a deal two months ago, but it doesn't seem to get there,' he said. The president also hinted that the First Lady, Melania Trump, may have contributed to his decision to send Patriot missiles. 'I go home, I tell the first lady, 'I spoke to Vladimir today, we had a wonderful conversation.' And she says, 'Oh really, another city was just hit',' he said from the Oval Office. The first lady was born behind the Iron Curtain in 1970 and grew up in former Yugoslavia.
Reuters
5 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
China's June new yuan loans beat forecast after stimulus and trade truce
BEIJING, July 14 (Reuters) - Chinese banks extended 2.24 trillion yuan ($312 billion) in new loans in June, more than triple May's total, and beating analysts' forecasts, helped by stimulus measures and a trade truce with the United States. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would reach 1.8 trillion yuan in June after 620 billion yuan in May. In the event, it also surpassed last June's 2.13 trillion yuan. The People's Bank of China does not provide monthly breakdowns, but Reuters calculated the June figure by comparing January-June data with the January-May figure. Annual growth of outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, rose to 8.9% last month, its highest since February 2024, from 8.7% in May. "The acceleration in broad credit growth last month, to a 16-month high, is a positive sign for the outlook and reduces the risk of a sharp deceleration in near-term economic activity," Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said in a note. "But this tailwind looks set to fade over the rest of the year as government bond issuance, the main driver of the pick-up, starts to slow again." New yuan loans totalled 12.92 trillion yuan for the first half of the year, the PBOC data showed, down from 13.27 trillion yuan in the same period last year. Household loans rose significantly to 597.6 billion yuan in June from 54 billion yuan in May, according to Reuters calculations. Corporate loans rose to 1.77 trillion yuan from 530 billion yuan in May. A prolonged property slump and rising job insecurity have made borrowers wary of taking on new debt, despite government efforts to boost consumption and revive growth. The central bank unveiled a raft of stimulus measures in May to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs and gained some relief after striking a 90-day trade truce with Washington, followed by a framework agreement signed in London in June. PBOC deputy governor Zou Lan, speaking at a news conference on Monday, pledged to keep an "appropriately loose" monetary policy, with adjustments to its pace and intensity as needed to support domestic demand and help hit the annual growth target. The PBOC is expected to steadily cut interest rates and inject more liquidity, while expectations are also rising that China will accelerate supply-side reforms to curb industrial overcapacity and explore new ways to spur consumption. The Financial News, a PBOC publication, said in a commentary that stronger policies to boost domestic demand and rein in excessive competition would help foster a healthier supply-demand cycle and support price recovery. Monday's data also showed June's outstanding yuan loans were up 7.1% from a year earlier, the same pace as in May, which was a record low. Analysts had expected 7.0% growth. Annual growth in broad M2 money supply accelerated to 8.3% in June - a 15-month high - beating analysts' forecast of 8.1%, and up from 7.9% in May. Meanwhile, the narrower M1 measure rose 4.6% year-on-year, a sharp rebound from 2.3% in May. China is set to release second-quarter GDP data on Tuesday. Growth is expected to have slowed because of the trade tensions, reinforcing expectations of further stimulus measures. ($1 = 7.1688 Chinese yuan renminbi)
